UN: Climate plans must go further to prevent dangerous warming

chimneys — Image captionCarbon emissions will be "significantly dented" according to the UN, if all the plans are put into action

The UN has released its assessment of national plans to limit climate change, submitted by 146 countries.

Officials say the submissions, in their current form, won't keep global temperatures from rising by more than the 2C danger threshold.

The global total of carbon emissions will continue to grow, although more slowly than over the past two decades.

However the UN report says the plans are a major step forward and the 2C goal is still "within reach".

The UN believes that these national climate plans, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) will form the cornerstone of a binding, global treaty on climate change that will be agreed at a conference in Paris in December.

According to the UN, the submissions now cover around 86% of global emissions: about four times the amount covered by the Kyoto Protocol, the world's first carbon cutting treaty.

Their assessment is decidedly upbeat about the plans, despite acknowledging that taken together they point to rises in global temperatures of 2.7C above the pre-industrial level.

Scientists have determined that if temperature rises exceed 2C, this will lead to significant and dangerous climate impacts, which will especially hit the world's poor.

UN climate chief, Christiana Figueres, said the plans were an excellent first step: "The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7C by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs."

Observers say the 2.7C figure is a substantial improvement on 3.1C, which was the estimate when the plans were assessed last December.

UN climate conference 30 Nov - 11 Dec 2015

COP 21 - the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties - will see more than 190 nations gather in Paris to discuss a possible new global agreement on climate change, aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the threat of dangerous warming due to human activities.

Explained: What is climate change?

In video: Why does the Paris conference matter?

Analysis: Latest from BBC environment correspondent Matt McGrath

More: BBC News climate change special report

A key finding of the UN reports is that the INDCs will bring down per capita emissions by 9% by 2030.

But while the rate of growth in CO2 may be declining, the overall amount of carbon in the atmosphere will continue to grow significantly over the next 15 years.

Compared to 2010 levels, the UN says that overall emissions could be up to 22% higher in 2030. The assessment says that, as they stand, the plans won't achieve the goal of peaking global emissions and then reducing them rapidly.

Another concern is that 25% of the total range of emissions reductions are conditional upon financial support from richer countries.

Despite these issues, the fact that so many countries, rich and poor, have submitted plans to cut carbon is giving environmental campaigners great hope that a new deal is imminent.

"The vast majority of the INDCs this time around, 105 of them, contain concrete greenhouse gas mitigation targets. That's in contrast to 27 for Copenhagen," said Taryn Fransen from the World Resources Institute, referring to the failed conference in the Danish capital in 2009.

"You have quite a few more countries that are now specifying absolute decreases in emissions levels. You have countries like China, South Africa and Singapore talking about peaking emissions through a hard cap.

"Even much smaller countries like Ethiopia, Bhutan and Costa Rica are identifying absolute limits on the quantity of emissions. I think that signals a real evolution."

The challenge for the UN is now to take these intentions and turn them into a coherent and legally binding deal when heads of government and negotiators meet in Paris in a month.

Analysis: David Shukman - BBC Science Editor

An "unprecedented engagement", says Christiana Figueres, the head of the UN's climate change negotiations. And if one thinks back to the irritable, dysfunctional days of the Copenhagen summit in 2009, the last big push for an international response to global warming, there has been a remarkable turnaround.

In the aftermath of that failed gathering, it seemed almost inconceivable that within a matter of years new momentum would be returned to what has generally been a faltering process.

It's worth bearing in mind that the national pledges to take action are of course entirely voluntary.

When the idea of individual submissions was first agreed, it was perfectly possible that many, if not most, of the world's 196 countries would choose to turn a blind eye, or plead some other pressing distraction, or argue that cutting greenhouse gases is a task to be faced by others.

Instead, an impressive 86% of global emissions are covered if you add up the total of all the different pledges.

Will it ultimately make any difference?

The numbers don't add up to what the scientists say is needed to avoid the worst of global warming. Emissions will still keep rising, albeit at a slower pace.

And the promises are just that - promises. Who knows how many governments will turn them into law and take them seriously? How many will refuse to act until the right finance is offered?

The outcome of all this is uncertain and much depends on the exact deal thrashed out at the approaching summit in Paris.

Copenhagen may well haunt the talks. But compared to where this process stood six years ago, there's a world of difference.

Even though the plans don't add up to enough of a cut to avoid a 2C rise, campaigners believe that a strong review mechanism can - and must - be put in place by the Paris agreement.

"Paris will not be the end of the world's efforts to tackle climate change, but it might be the end of the beginning," said Mohammed Adow from Christian Aid.

"Going forward we will need a five-year review mechanism that will track how countries are doing and push them to do more as technology advances and more finance becomes available."

Getting all that into a Paris deal won't be easy. In fact the emissions pledges are the most straightforward aspect.

In fact, the negotiators now have a draft document that runs to 50 dense pages.

In the words of one delegate at a recent negotiating session, even the world's best paid lawyer would be hard pressed to understand it.

Follow Matt on Twitter: @mattmcgrathbbc

Paris climate summit: UN negotiations 'need redesign'

By Rebecca MorelleScience Correspondent, BBC News

The UN climate negotiations are heading for failure and need a major redesign if they are to succeed, scientists say.

The pledges that individual countries are offering ahead of the Paris climate summit in December are too entrenched in self interest instead of being focussed on a common goal.

The researchers say the science of cooperation is being ignored.

Instead, they say the negotiations should focus on a common commitment on the global price of carbon.

This means countries would agree on a uniform charge for carbon pollution, a scheme that would encourage polluters to reduce their emissions.

The comments from researchers at the University of Cambridge, UK, University of Maryland, US, and University of Cologne, in Germany, are published in the journal Nature.

'I will, if you will'

Ahead of December's United Nations climate meeting, individual countries have submitted their plans for cutting greenhouse gas emissions. These are calledIntended Nationally Determined Contributions - or INDCs.

However, the researchers say that this approach will not work.

Prof David MacKay, from the University of Cambridge, who was former chief scientific advisor to Britain's Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), said: "The science of cooperation predicts that if all you are doing is naming individual contributions - offers that aren't coupled to each other - then you'll end up with a relatively poor outcome.

"We have the history of the Kyoto agreement as an example of this. Initially, the approach was to find a common commitment, but eventually it descended into a patchwork of individual commitments... and that led to very weak commitments and several countries leaving the process."

The Paris negotiations, he warned, were heading in the same direction.

Instead, the researchers say, a reciprocal approach could transform the meeting.

"If you make a treaty that is based on reciprocity, so 'I will, if you will' and 'I won't, if you won't', then you can end up in a very different position," explained Prof MacKay.

"If people make a common commitment that they will match what others do, then it becomes in your self interest to advocate a high level of action because it will apply not only to you but also to others."

Traffic jam — Image captionThe scientists say setting an agreed global charge for carbon emissions

The scientists believe that setting a common price for carbon, which could be implemented through carbon tax or emissions trading schemes, could work.

Prof MacKay said: "This is a price that could be negotiated and agreed, and would apply to all countries."

The researchers admit that with the Paris climate conference just weeks away and the fact that global carbon pricing is not already on the table, their idea is unlikely to have much influence.

However, they say the science of cooperation should be taken into account for future negotiations.

Commenting on the paper, Bob Ward from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said: "This is a thoughtful contribution but rather too pessimistic about the United Nations climate change negotiations.

"The authors are right that a global price on carbon is necessary, although it would be, on its own, insufficient to generate the pace and scale of action required."

freedom

Friday, 30 October 2015